MANILA — Top resident economists of the House of Representatives tried to allay concerns over the high inflation in the country and the weakening of the peso against the US dollar.

Marikina 2nd District Rep. Stella Quimbo said that "a lot" of inflation drivers are "beyond our control." Among them are Russia's continued war in Ukraine and rising interest rates in the US, according to Quimbo.

"Una diyan is of course 'yung nangyayaring digmaan sa Russia atsaka Ukraine na nagpapataas ng presyo ng langis. Number 2 'yung pagtaas ng interest rate ng US," said Quimbo who used to teach economics in UP Diliman.

"Ang pagtaas ng interest rate natin locally ay nanggagaling doon sa pagtaas ng interest rate ng US."

• Peso weakens for 3rd straight day, closes at P57 to US dollar
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Quimbo explained this is why it is important for the government to give financial aid.

"Ang kailangan talaga gawin is tingin ko kaya importante 'yung DSWD assistance program we have to make sure na 'yung mga kababayan na talagang nangangailangan andiyan sufficiently funded na iba't ibang assistance programs with or without a pandemic dapat may assistance program talaga," Quimbo said.

Quimbo also said that economic managers are keeping a close watch over the peso.

"Ang dahilan po kung bakit nangyayari ang pagde-depreciate ng peso natin is again doon sa aksyon ng US to increase interest rates kasi pag tumataas ang US interest rates ang ibig sabihin noon 'yung mga dollar denominated investments tumataas 'yung demand for that kasi mas malaki ang kita pag dollar denominated. Ibig sabihin tumataas ang demand for US dollars humihina 'yung demand for the Philippine peso," she explained.

"Law of supply and demand humihina tuloy ang halaga ng piso. Of course kung anuman 'yung appreciation na nangyayari puwede naman ikontra ng ating BSP kung kailangan nila kontrahin yan dahil may supisyente tayong reserves."

For his part, Albay 2nd District Rep. Joey Salceda explained that fuel inflation is gradually but surely decelerating.

"Although month-on-month, fuel prices from July to August still accelerated by 1.9 percent, I expect the August to September month-on-month figures on fuel to begin declining (or be negative), not just slowing down," Salceda said in a statement.

"As such, and reiterating my statement this week, we must begin to shift the focus from fuel to food inflation, which has also been slowing them, but which remains elevated and takes up a much larger share of the Filipino budget," he added.

"Month-on-month, which is what households really feel instead of year-on-year, food has continued to increase in prices by 0.7 percent, the largest increases of which have been in sugar at a very high 7.3 percent, milk, dairy, and eggs at 2.7 percent, vegetables at 2.7 percent."

Salceda also said that the sugar issue is clearly affecting overall prices (26 percent year-on-year inflation rate for this commodity), and it has pass-through effects on bread and non-alcoholic beverage prices, which have also increased.

"Although sugar itself is not the healthiest portion of the basket of goods, it is a reliable source of calories for Filipinos. I expect only very moderate declines, if not outright increases, in the prices of sugar from here on, until we are able to address the issue of how much we really need to import," Salceda said.

He then reiterated his position that the country’s import program should be more rational and data-driven under a national committee of experts on sugar, while domestic support should be streamlined in the DA, "which has a better implementing capacity than the Sugar Regulatory Administration."

"The SRA in other words should be abolished and better institutions should be established or designated in its place," he said.

Salceda said he expects inflation to peak by November at the latest, so August inflation beginning to slow down year-on-year is a positive development.

"Some surprises could still take place in the world market for oil, but generally, I see that we should be focusing on food price inflation now. The effects of fuel price hikes on food inflation will dissipate much later than fuel prices will begin to decline (fertilizers, machines, and other inputs will have been made with much higher fuel prices). These are what we call lagged or second-round effects," Salceda said.

"Food prices are especially crucial for our learning recovery. The empirical link between high food prices (especially protein), and low academic performance is well established in literature. If we want to accelerate our catch-up from learning losses due to COVID-19, we need cheaper food soon."

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