Vice President Sara Duterte speaks to the media at the Office of The Vice President in Mandaluyong City on December 11, 2024. Maria Tan, ABS-CBN News

MANILA -- For a political analyst from the Political Science department of UP Diliman, the upcoming impeachment trial of Vice Present Sara Duterte may be considered as a disqualification case against the VP in relation to the 2028 presidential elections.

Duterte has floated the idea of a presidential bid in 2028 on multiple occasions. 

If convicted by the Senate impeachment court, Duterte won't just be ousted from the vice presidency -- she will also be perpetually banned from public office, in a boon to those with eyes to the presidency. Duterte has so far topped early polls on the 2028 presidential elections. 

"Yes, that is the end goal actually. And of course, that is also part of revitalizing the Marcos brand. It's now engaging in anti-corruption initiatives and all sorts of things," Jean Franco told ABS-CBN news. 

This is why Franco believes that all these factors, plus the twilight of the Marcos Jr. administration, will come to a head in the Senate of the 20th Congress. 

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"Of course, the remaining legislative agenda, the impeachment trial, and definitely there will be recalibrations of political alliances in the next year, for 2028," Franco said. 

For one, the impeachment is likely to be a factor in the selection of a new Senate President. 

"Definitely. Especially because the administration has invested so much in the impeachment case of VP Sara Duterte. And I believe they will do anything to ensure that this impeachment trial will indeed happen and will be favorable (to the administration)," Franco explained--referring to a conviction. 

Franco, however, cautions over merely considering past political alliances in guessing how the 24 Senators may rule on the impeachment, because the trial itself could either end Duterte's career, or be good for it. 

"Sa akin, it's difficult to categorically say that this particular senator will go for Sara or will go against Sara's conviction. Mainly because it depends on how the impeachment trial will play out. Remember, it's going to be broadcasted or live-streamed nationwide and each senator will have to fill the public's pulse," Franco pointed out.

"And given that information is really very fast nowadays, it's going to be very important, especially for those who will be re-elected, seek reelection in 2028, and for those who want to be president in 2028."

Franco said that if Duterte remains popular, senators with eyes on 2028 may want her supporters' votes and not want to antagonize her or them.

"Yes, especially that the one closest to Duterte, Bong Go, is number one, the Senate, and Bato dela Rosa is also number three or number four. And the impeachment trial is going to be monitored by the public with an eye on whether the trial will present credible pieces of evidence against Sara Duterte or the trial can also go for the VP, meaning to say if the public sees her as a victim of political persecution, then the senator will act accordingly," said the analyst. 

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Franco noted that Senators who acquit Duterte may win the votes of her supporters, if that is the case. 

Still, some senators, especially those who won't want to run against Duterte for the presidency in 2028, may try to find a way to take her out of the running, according to Franco. 

"Yeah, that can be one. But it's going to be also, it's going to be very difficult to predict given the uncertainties of our political climate based on history. But then, they can also probably negotiate with the powers that how their political futures will be pursued," said Franco. 

Franco notes that Duterte is a politician who has voters behind her, unlike Chief Justice Renato Corona who was impeached by the House and convicted and ousted by the Senate. 

"The impeachment of Corona and the impeachment of Sara Duterte are apples and oranges. Because Sara is an elected official, a very popular elected official, while Corona was chief justice. And normally, the Filipino public who traditionally do not have access to justice, know very little about the justice system, how it operates, and so they cannot be compared," Franco explained.

"The calculation in Sara's case is more political for individual senators rather than mere technical."

Franco pointed out that Duterte candidates in Halalan 2025 gained after the VP was impeached and former President Rodrigo Duterte was surrendered to the International Criminal Court. 

"Yes, definitely. You can see from the results of the 2025 elections, the senatorial elections, that you can see the marks of a Duterte surge. How else would Marcoleta be in the top 12 and how else would Bong Go be senator? Remember, in the 2016 elections, even the Duterte presidency, Bong Go was just touted as the presidential alalay and now is the number one senator." 

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Given the emerging composition of the Senate in the next Congress based on the winners of the 2022 Senatorial Elections and the likely winners of the 2025 Senatorial elections, the next Senate will be a mixed bag of advocacies and alliances. 

"It's going to be a very interesting Senate. Given those who have won in this election, they'll very much form different groups of actors. Sorry, hindi naman actors. Groups of legislators in the Senate bringing with them different types of advocacies and of course alliances," he said. 

But given the results of the election, Franco believes the next Senate maybe bolder in taking on the administration. 

"I think the election on the part of the administration reflects the dissatisfaction of the public over the promises that this administration has actually...told the people," he said. 

"Alam mo, because it's going to be the second half of the administration. Traditionally, the president is referred to as a lame duck president. Given the results, given the dissatisfaction of the public, my indicator is the low approval ratings of the president in the past few months, I think the Senate will become more emboldened to criticize him based on the policies that the President would address and based on how the Senate thinks should the country move forward," Franco added. 

Earlier today, Senatorial Candidate Vicente Sotto III expressed readiness to return as Senate President if he has the numbers. 

Franco points out that it shows Senate President Francis Escudero's hold on the helm of the Senate is precarious. 

"That in itself tells you that Chiz Escudero's seat as Senate President is getting precarious," said Franco. 

Franco doesn't think it would be good for the Senate leadership to be term shared by the two lawmakers.

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"Sa akin kasi term sharing is not a good way to manage an institution. Especially that we have crucial issues that are going to be addressed by the Senate," he said. "The remaining legislative agenda, the impeachment trial so I think whoever will be the Senate President should really have the numbers and should be there for at least 3 years maximum." 

Escudero remains Senate President, unless someone else gets the nod of 13 senators. 

Franco keeps an open mind about what could happen next. 

"Given that this has been an election of surprises and also given the things that are going to be tackled by the Senate the next three years. And definitely, I think by the first or second week of July, we will be getting figures as to whether Chiz Escudero will stay in his position," he said.

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