Sinagpore's Marina Bay Sands hotel. Arthur Fuentes, ABS-CBN News

MANILA - The Philippines, along with other members of ASEAN, as well as China, Japan and South Korea (ASEAN+3) are expected to show resilience amid the tariff chaos sweeping the globe, a regional economic research group said on Tuesday.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) noted that the tariffs planned by the United States have led to "unprecedented global trade shocks." 

But AMRO also said the region's economies " are more resilient and diversified than during past global shocks and better positioned to navigate the unfolding tariff shock.”  

“The announcement of elevated and broad-based tariffs by the US, and the developments since, have added significant layers of complexity to the ASEAN+3 region’s outlook,” said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor.

In its outlook, AMRO noted that 13 out of the 14 ASEAN+3 member economies are subject to some of the highest effective tariff rates, with a trade-weighted average estimated at 26 percent excluding China.

"These rates remain fluid and will likely evolve further in the coming months. These tariffs and the uncertainty generated by the constant shifts in policies are expected to weaken trade momentum, disrupt supply chains, and increase financial market volatility," AMRO said.

But the agency also said the region has resilient fundamentals. It said that while these trade shocks will weigh on ASEAN+3, the region is entering this period from a position of relative strength and resilience. 

"ASEAN+3 economies possess ample policy space to cushion near-term shocks. Many governments have the fiscal capacity to deliver targeted support to vulnerable sectors and sustain domestic demand. Central banks in the region have room to ease monetary policy in view of the low and well-anchored inflation rates, and can deploy macroprudential tools and liquidity facilities to safeguard financial stability," AMRO said. 

NEDA still optimistic about growth

National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said he hopes the Philippines could still do better than average despite global uncertainties.

"But of course, this uncertainty in the global environment-- you would expect investment decisions would be suspended. And it's not just in the Philippines. Everywhere. But hopefully, we'll do better than average," Balisacan said.

He underscored the country's strong macroeconomic fundamentals as well as the easing inflation. He added that consumption is also expected to drive growth in the first quarter.

On Thursday, the BSP cut its benchmark rate to 5.5 percent from 5.75 percent.

"I think that the consumption because of the lower interest rates and much more favorable inflation. The first three months of the year would surely have impact favorably on consumption," Balisacan added.

Balisacan also said he expects to see the rate cut's full impact on spending and investments once the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is released on May 8.