MANILA — Former President Rodrigo Duterte's pre-election survey support has been declining but still substantive, Pulse Asia Research president Ronald Holmes told ABS-CBN News as he explained why the past chief executive only landed in the middle of the latest Pulse Asia Pre-Election Survey that was topped by broadcaster turned lawmaker Erwin Tulfo.

Holmes however also noted that Duterte has not announced his May 2025 election plans, which could be a factor for the dip.

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He said that while support for Duterte dipped in Balance Luzon, the former president is "still generating about 3 out of 4 votes in Mindanao and that's the reason why he's there in terms of ranking tied from 4th to 9th."

Holmes added that Duterte's ratings would be "a level of support for someone who lands on 5th or 6th position in an actual election."

Holmes believes Duterte's electoral support is also taking a hit from the controversies hounding him, including alleged extrajudicial killings and alleged links to the illegal drug trade that House panels are holding hearings on.

"In this case that will have an effect, it's just that we cannot measure as to what the effect is. The level of support that we're seeing in terms of President Duterte is steadily declining from the first time that we included his name but it does not necessarily put him in the lower 6th," he said.

STILL STRONG IN VISAYAS, MINDANAO

 Holmes says Duterte is propped up by the Visayas and Mindanao — his home region — giving him "a substantive level of support."

Outside the poll's magic 14 is Duterte's son, Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte, who Holmes believes may benefit if the former president foregoes a senatorial bid.

"Maaring mayroong lilipat, maaring mayroong mag-iisip na kung i-endorso siya ng kaniyang ama ay susuportahan siya," he said.

(There may be some who will shift support or there may be some who are thinking of supporting him if his father endorses him)

He said that, as it stands, surveys suggest that less 2 of every 10 Filipinos would vote for Mayor Duterte if he were to run for senator.

"Kung 'yun ang gagawin nilang istratehiya sa kampaniya at kung 'di tatakbo ang kaniyang ama... Pero makikita natin 'yan kung masusukat natin sa mga sumusunod na survey at kung talagang tatakbo siya," Holmes said.

(If that will be their campaign strategy and the father does not run... but we will see if that is so in the next surveys and if he will really run.)

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