Pakistan floods: South Asia's monsoon explained

Agence France-Presse 

<div class="embed-wrap"><figure data-feedback="fb:likes,fb:comments"><img alt="People gather in front of a road damaged by flood waters following heavy monsoon rains in Madian area in Pakistan" s="" northern="" Swat="" Valley="" on="" Aug.="" Thousands="" of="" people="" living="" near="" flood-swollen="" rivers="" in="" north="" were="" ordered="" to="" evacuate="" as="" the="" death="" toll="" from="" devastating="" monsoon="" rains="" neared="" with="" no="" end="" sight.="" Abdul="" src="https://sa.kapamilya.com/absnews/abscbnnews/media/2022/overseas/08/28/20220827-madian-pakistan-flooding-afp-1-s.jpg"/><figcaption>People gather in front of a road damaged by flood waters following heavy monsoon rains in Madian area in Pakistan&#x27;s northern Swat Valley on Aug. 27, 2022. Thousands of people living near flood-swollen rivers in Pakistan&#x27;s north were ordered to evacuate on Aug. 27 as the death toll from devastating monsoon rains neared 1,000 with no end in sight. <em>Abdul Majeed, AFP</em></figcaption></figure></div><p>NEW DELHI, India — Floods in Pakistan have <a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/08/28/22/pakistan-monsoon-flooding-death-toll-tops-1000">killed more than 1,000 people</a> after what its climate change minister called a record unbroken cycle of monsoon rains with &quot;8 weeks of non-stop torrents&quot;.</p><p>AFP explains what the monsoon is, why it is so important and yet so dangerous, and how climate change and other man-made effects may be altering the vast life-giving but destructive annual weather system.</p><div><strong>What is the South Asian monsoon?</strong></div><p>The Southwest or the Asian Summer Monsoon is essentially a colossal sea breeze that brings South Asia 70-80 percent of its annual rainfall between June and September every year.</p><p>It occurs when summer heat warms the landmass of the subcontinent, causing the air to rise and sucking in cooler Indian Ocean winds which then produce enormous volumes of rain.</p><div><strong>Why it is important?</strong></div><p>The monsoon is vital for agriculture and therefore for the livelihoods of millions of farmers and for food security in the poor region of around two billion people.</p><p>But it brings destruction every year in landslides and floods. Melting glaciers add to the volume of water while unregulated construction in flood-prone areas exacerbates the damage.</p><div><strong>Is it the same every year? </strong></div><p>Despite being heavily studied, the monsoon is relatively poorly understood. Exactly where and when the rain will fall is hard to forecast and varies considerably.</p><p>This year, for example, while Pakistan has seen a deluge, eastern and northeastern India reportedly had the lowest amounts of July rainfall in 122 years.</p><div><strong>What explains the variability?</strong></div><p>Fluctuations are caused by changes in global atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as the El Nino effect in the Pacific and a phenomenon called the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) only discovered in 2002.</p><p>Other factors are thought to include local effects such as aerosols, clouds of dust blowing in from the Sahara desert, air pollution and even irrigation by farmers.</p><div><strong>What about climate change? </strong></div><p>India is getting hotter and in recent years has seen more cyclones but scientists are unclear on how exactly a warming planet is affecting the highly complex monsoon.</p><p>A study last year by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) tracking monsoon shifts from the mid-20th century suggested that it was becoming stronger and more erratic.</p><p>Initially, aerosol pollution reflecting sunlight subdued rainfall, but from the 1980s the warming effects of greenhouse gases began to drive stronger and more volatile rainy seasons, the study said.</p><ul class="op-related-articles">	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/06/29/22/nearly-1-in-4-at-risk-from-severe-flooding-study">Nearly 1 in 4 globally at risk from severe flooding, study says</a></li>	<li><a href="https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/08/10/21/un-climate-change-report-sounds-code-red-for-humanity">UN climate change report sounds &#x27;code red for humanity&#x27;</a></li></ul><div> <strong>Do other studies bear this out?</strong></div><p>Broadly yes. The Indian government&#x27;s first ever climate change assessment, released in 2020, said that overall monsoon precipitation fell around six percent from 1951 to 2015.</p><p>It said that there was an &quot;emerging consensus&quot; that this was down to aerosol pollution considerably offsetting the expected rise in rainfall from global warming.</p><p>With continued warming and lower aerosol emissions, it projected more rain and greater variability by the end of this century, together with &quot;substantial increases&quot; in daily precipitation extremes.</p><div><strong>What will this mean for people? </strong></div><p>India&#x27;s 2021 monsoon was a case in point: June rain was above normal, in July it fell, August was nearly a drought and in September precipitation returned with a vengeance.</p><p>Several hundred died in floods in Maharashtra in July and in Gujarat in September. The same month a cloudburst turned the streets of Hyderabad into raging rivers in just two hours.</p><p>But by October farmers in parts of northern and north-eastern India were reeling from drought while elsewhere the monsoon took longer than usual to withdraw.</p><p>&quot;More chaos in the Indian monsoon rainfall will make it harder to adapt,&quot; Anders Levermann from PIK and Columbia University told AFP last year.</p><div><strong>© Agence France-Presse </strong></div><figure class="op-interactive"><iframe height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zLav7G0_EKI?enablejsapi=1" width="560"></iframe></figure><div class="iwantbar">Watch more News on <a href="https://www.iwanttfc.com/#!/browse/Genres/News/tag_id_genres/id_news" target="_blank">iWantTFC</a></div>

Floods in Pakistan have killed more than 1,000 people after a record unbroken cycle of monsoon rains. 

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Pakistan floods: South Asia's monsoon explained

Pakistan floods: South Asia's monsoon explained

Agence France-Presse

Published Aug 29, 2022 07:27 PM PHT

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