MANILA (UPDATE) – Tropical depression Julian may strengthen into a typhoon this weekend, the state weather bureau warned on Friday. 

Julian could reach typhoon strength by Sunday evening and dump up to intense rains in northern Luzon through midday Monday, PAGASA said. 

The cyclone was spotted 400 kilometers east southeast of Basco, Batanes at 10 p.m. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour and up to 70 kph gusts.

PAGASA raised Wind Signal No. 1 over Babuyan Islands and eastern mainland Cagayan, where 39 to 61 kph winds are expected. 

Moving southwestward at 20 kph, Julian will follow a loop-like track over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon in the next five days. It will be closest to mainland Cagayan Sunday and to Batanes on Monday, where it may make landfall by Monday afternoon or evening as a typhoon.

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WEAKER HABAGAT

With Julian almost stationary off Batanes, it is not expected to induce monsoon rains similar to those enhanced by Typhoon Carina in July, PAGASA said. 

PAGASA Marine Meteorological Services Section Chief Chris Perez noted that the period of monsoon rains in the country had passed. 

“Ang habagat season ay June to September kaya kung magkaka-habagat episode man [dahil sa bagyong Julian], hindi pareho ng enhancement ni Carina,” he said in a press conference. 

(The monsoon season in the Philippines is June to September which is why if ever there will be a monsoon episode now due to Julian, it won’t be enhanced in the same way compared to that of Carina.)

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Because the position and movement of Julian are different from those of previous storms Carina, Enteng and Gener, it is not expected to cause significant effects, devastation, and disruption in Metro Manila. 

But Perez said this was not reason enough for the public to be complacent. 

MORE DESTRUCTIVE TYPHOONS

Julian is the sixth tropical cyclone monitored by PAGASA in September alone and the 10th overall for the entire year. This figure, in a span of a month, is high. 

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With a few more storms expected to form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), PAGASA advised the public to be prepared. 

“’Yung most destructive na tumatawid na bagyo sa ating bansa, usually nangyayari ‘yan during the last quarter of the year. During La Niña years, may mga pagkakataon na nagkakaroon tayo ng more than the number of tropical cyclones na namo-monitor sa ating bansa,” Perez said.

(The most destructive typhoons to cross the Philippines usually happen during the last quarter of the year. There have also been instances during La Niña years that we monitor more tropical cyclones in the country.)

Perez said they expected around two to three more storms this October. The number will decline by November and December but he warned against the cyclones’ intensity.

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FREQUENT FORECASTS TOO TAXING

For tropical cyclones that hit land, PAGASA issues bulletins every three hours.

However, at the height of tropical storm Enteng’s heavy rainfall this September, some local governments found this frequency still wanting as their decision to suspend classes and work depended on them. 

“Ito talagang direktang tinanong namin kung pwede kaming makahingi ng timely forecast pero ang inadvise samin, 11 o’clock ng gabi pa yung pinakamaagang maibibigay. Ang susunod alas dos, alas kwatro,” Marikina City Mayor Marcy Teodoro told ABS-CBN News during the passage of Enteng. 

“Kung magsususpinde ka ng klase, late na yung mga ganong oras. Nakapaghanda na ang mga bata at magulang.” 

(We asked them directly if we can ask for timely forecasts, but they advised us that the earliest they can give is at 11 o’clock in the evening. The next ones will be at 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. If you’re to suspend classes, this is actually late because the children and their parents would have already prepared.)

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But Maximo Peralta, PAGASA’s Officer-in-Charge of the Office of the Deputy Administrator for Administration and Engineering, explained that providing hourly forecasts is unrealistic given the amount of work that comes with formulating forecasts. 

“Maraming preparation na ginagawa para rito. Unang una ‘yung mga data na galing sa field, pinapadala dito and then ‘yun ang ina-analyze ng grupo bago mag-formulate ng forecast. So kung gagawin nating every hour, bawat oras mag-a-analyze, magbibigay ng forecast, so sa preparasyon pa lang parang hindi na kaya siguro ng mga tao,” he said. 

(A lot of preparation goes into this. First the data that come from the field have to be sent here and analyzed before the group is able to formulate a forecast. So if we will do this every hour, it seems unrealistic and too much for our staff to handle.)

But Peralta admitted that the more ideal scenario is to have a synoptic weather station in every province in the country. 

PAGASA aims to establish at least 10 weather stations in different parts of the country this year, which they said would yield more accurate weather forecasts and updates to the public. 

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