MANILA — President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. “should be careful” in dealing with the United States under President Donald Trump, a political analyst said on Sunday, noting how America’s support for Ukraine has withered as the new administration pivots towards aggressor Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump figured in a verbal clash in an Oval Office meeting over the weekend, prompting Washington to renege an earlier commitment to help Kyiv win its war against invading Moscow.

“We have to be careful with how we deal with the US government given that.. it is likely that the US government will become more unpredictable with its commitments,” said Arjan Aguirre, a political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, who is currently based in the US.

“President Marcos should be careful, should deal with the US government with [circumspection],” he said.

“He should be careful in choosing the right words, choosing the right approach in dealing with the Trump presidency.”

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In less than two months since returning to the White House, Trump has established “this tendency that they will ask something in return,” Aguirre said.

“They are asking or expecting in return. The mineral deal with Ukraine is one of the examples that I can cite,” he said, referring to the botched mineral earth deal that was supposed to be signed between Washington anf Kyiv over the weekend.

“I am inclined to think that we should do something on our part as a sovereign nation to also protect our interest and lessen our reliance with our ally, the United States of America,” he said.

“We cannot afford to lose the US as our ally, but that should not mean that we should stop exploring other means to diversify ties.”

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Under Trump, the United States has voted against a United Nations resolution condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio noted.

“Trump said that you cannot blame Russia for the war… Maybe tomorrow, Trump will say you cannot blame China for invading the Spratlys. It can happen so we have to prepare for that,” the former magistrate said.

“We trust the US… they are reasonable people but it’s Trump that is too unpredictable,” he said.

“We have to be prepared for that because we really do not know what is in his mind.”

‘SUITABLE COST OF REAL ESTATE’ FOR AMERICA

Despite these concerns, a defense expert is confident that Trump will not easily abandon its alliance and commitment to the Philippines as the Southeast Asian nation is a “suitable cost of real estate” that benefits the United States’ interests against China. 

“At the moment, the Philippines is instrumental to the Trump strategy of trying to make China accept the world order,” said Dr. Carlyle Thayer, professor emeritus at the Australian Defense Force Academy.

“There is utility in keeping ties with the Philippines. The debate is: Can you trust America?”

Last year, the United States pledged to allocate a $500-million investment to fund the Philippines’ defense upgrade program to deter Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.

While earlier reports noted that Trump has exempted overseas defense projects from the foreign aid freeze it imposed this year, Washington has yet to make clear if it will sustain the commitment made during the Biden administration.

“This crisis will be an opportunity for other states to come in and salvage the situation,” Aguirre said.

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He said the US will lose some of its political clout and "will hurt them in the long run.” 

Australia, Canada and several European countries have expressed support for Zelensky after his verbal spat with Trump at the White House, but the Philippines — which has earlier condemned Russia — has been silent on the diplomatic tussle between Washington and Kyiv.

ABS-CBN News has sought  Malacañang’s comment on whether the Oval Office incident raised concerns on Trump’s commitment to US allies, but the Palace has yet to respond as of this post.

In February,  Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said that Manila and Washington are trying to schedule a meeting between Marcos Jr. and Trump “as soon as possible.”

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