MANILA — State weather bureau PAGASA on Monday said there may be higher chances of above normal rainfall in the first quarter of 2025 as sea surface temperatures reached  La Niña conditions threshold in December 2024.

According to PAGASA, the periods of cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that started in September 2024 continued to persist and further strengthened in December 2024.

PAGASA also said the La Niña may continue until March 2025, which may bring higher chances of above normal rainfall.

“With this development, higher chances of above normal rainfall in January – February - March 2025 season is expected, which may cause floods, flashfloods and rain-induced landslides,” it said.

There might also be increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine area of responsibility within the same period.

La Nina refers to a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that cools the ocean surface temperatures in large swathes of the tropical Pacific Ocean, coupled with winds, rains and changes in atmospheric pressure.

In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Nina produces the opposite climate impacts to El Nino, which heats up the surface of the oceans, leading to drought in some parts of the world and triggering heavy downpours elsewhere.

Possible cooling La Nina will be 'weak', 'short-lived': UN

- with a report from Agence France-Presse