Pedestrians cross an intersection in Makati City on March 27, 2024. Mark Demayo, ABS-CBN News/file

MANILA — The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record and 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) average.

On Wednesday, state climatologists in PAGASA reported that 2024 is also the hottest in the Philippines since monitoring started in 1951.

"2024 is the hottest year on record natin ngayon. Nalampasan n'ya 'yung 1998 [temperature]... pero napakaliit lang ng pagitan - around 0.05 degrees Celsius... Almost comparable 'yung pagkakaroon ng mainit na temperatura ng 2024 at 1998," Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis said.

(2024 is our hottest year on record in the Philippines. It exceeded the previous record in 1998, but with just a very small difference of 0.05 degrees Celsius. The temperatures in 1998 and 2024 are comparable.)

She attributed this to the coinciding of the peak of the strong El Niño episode with the warm and dry season in the country.

"[2024] nag-peak yung strong El Nino episode at nagkataon na warm and dry season months yung March, April, May. Dun tayo nakapagtala ng mas maraming dry spell at prolonged drought conditions at record-breaking na mga temperatura," she explained.

(It was in 2024 when the peak of El Niño coincided with the warm and dry season months of March, April, and May. Dry spells, prolonged drought conditions, and record-breaking heat were recorded during this time.)

READ: Agricultural losses due to El Niño hits P9.5 billion, says DA

The recent El Niño episode began in June 2023 and ended in May 2024, affecting 175,000 farmers and damaging 164,000 hectares of land.

The Department of Agriculture pegged the total agricultural damage at almost Php 10 billion.

While the impacts of the 1997-1998 and 2023-2024 El Niño events were comparable in terms of temperature and rainfall, Solis pointed out the differences in preparations and response.

“Mas naging handa tayo dahil marami na tayong available na data, mga innovations, na-improve na rin yung forecasts para maging basehan para mag-come up ng policies at national decisions. Ang pagkakaiba lang siguro kung paano mas naging handa yung gobyerno - hindi lang yung national government kundi pati yung pagkakaisa ng local government and lahat ng concerned government agencies sa ilalim ng Task Force El Niño.”

(We were more prepared this time around due to more available data, innovations, and improved forecasts which were the bases of national policies and decisions. The preparedness of not only the national government but also the cooperation of local governments and concerned agencies under Task Force El Niño made the difference.)

RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

Last year, several PAGASA stations across the country posted new all-time temperature records, including:

Clark, Pampanga    39.1°C

NAIA, Pasay City    38.8°C

Sangley Point, Cavite City  38.7°C


Butuan City      38.0°C

Malaybalay City    37.5°C

Tanay, Rizal      35.0°C 

The temperatures in Pasay and Butuan are also the new hottest records for Metro Manila and Caraga Region, respectively.

READ: Metro Manila records new all-time hottest temperature

Because of the prolonged periods of warm weather, face-to-face classes were suspended and shifted to online mode.

Despite this, PAGASA data showed the warming was much more pronounced at night than during the day.

In 2024, the daytime temperature was higher by only 0.50°C than the average but the nighttime temperature was almost 1°C higher.

"Kung titingnan natin yung minimum at maximum temperatures – ‘yung nighttime at daytime temperature, mas mataas ‘yung pag-init ng nighttime temperature kesa sa daytime temperature. Ibig sabihin malaki ang contribution ng nighttime temperature sa whole warming natin during strong El Nino episode," Solis expounded.

(If we look at the minimum and maximum temperatures, nighttime temperatures got warmer than the daytime temperatures. This means the nighttime temperatures contributed more significantly to the warming during the strong El Niño event.)

The increase in nighttime temperatures is more felt in cities due to the urban heat island effect. The presence of more concrete, steel, and other materials that absorb more heat and the absence of open ground and vegetation that cool the environment down lead to this phenomenon.

LESS RAINFALL

In terms of rainfall, the country received below to near normal precipitation in 2024.

Comparing rainfall data since 1961, 2024's warm and dry season (March-April-May, MAM) was the seventh driest while the July-August-September (JAS) season or the rainy season in the western Philippines was the sixth wettest.

"No two El Niños are alike – ibig sabihin magkaiba ang mga epekto or impact nito lalo na sa rainfall at temperature... Both impacts ng extreme rainfall events naranasan natin last year," Solis clarified.

(No two El Niños are alike – the effects on rainfall and temperature will always be different. But in 2024, we experienced extreme rainfall events – both the absence and the excess of rains.)

By the second half of 2024, La Niña-like conditions in equatorial Pacific led to a string of tropical cyclones, with an unprecedented seven storms successively bearing down on Northern Luzon in October and November.

Cumulative damage from 18 named storms in 2024 is pegged at almost P40 billion, with almost 300 deaths.

In an earlier study, state climatologists identified changing rainfall patterns in the country over the past six decades (1951-2010) – some areas are getting drier while some are getting wetter.

"Mostly nakikita natin 'yung drying tendency sa parte ng Northern Luzon area... MIMAROPA, Panay Island, and Zamboanga Peninsula... May mga tendency na dadami 'yung ulan sa eastern section ng ating bansa most especially sa Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, including SOCCSKSARGEN," Solis pointed.

(The areas we saw which are getting drier include parts of Northern Luzon, MIMAROPA, Panay Island, and Zamboanga Peninsula. On the other hand, Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and SOCCSKSARGEN are getting wetter.)

Between March and November, Central Luzon and Pangasinan were seen to have notable increase in rainfall while central Mindanao showed decrease in precipitation. Bicol Region, on the other hand, observed a decline in rainfall from June to November.

2025 OUTLOOK

Presently, a weak La Niña persists in the tropical Pacific Ocean but is forecast to last only until March.

"Sa ngayon, until October of this year nakikita ng mga global climate models na tinitingnan natin ay ENSO neutral condition after nitong short weak La Niña."

(Global climate models show that ENSO neutral conditions will persist until October, after the short weak La Niña.)

She added that another La Niña episode may develop by yearend.

La Niña brings above-normal rainfall in the country, especially with the prevalence of the northeast monsoon or Amihan and the humid Easterlies from the Pacific and the formation of a shear line.

Although most of 2025 will see normal conditions, there may still be temperature spikes especially during the warm season.

“Kung ikukumpara historically, usually ‘yung warm and dry season months nakakapagtala pa rin talaga ng maiiinit na temperatura at mataas na heat index. So mararamdaman, mararanasan pa rin natin ‘yun pero hindi katulad nung last year.

(Historically speaking, extreme temperatures and very high heat indices may still be recorded during the warm and dry season even during ENSO neutral conditions. But they will not be as intense as last year’s.)

MORE FREQUENT, MORE INTENSE EXTREME WEATHER

Solis explained that while there is a natural variability in the earth’s climate, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change. 

“Before 2000, ‘yung mga strong El Niño episodes nangyayari every 10 to 15 years. Pero after 2000 hanggang ngayon, mas dumadalas na ‘yung strong El Nino episodes – nagiging 5 to 7 years na. Nagkakaroon na rin tayo ng maraming back-to-back La Niña… Mas nagkakaroon ng pagbabago dun sa intensity ng mga extreme events dahil sa increasing frequency ng mga natural variability such as El Niño and La Niña; mas nagiging strong na sya. Eto ‘yung nakikita nating attribution to climate change.”

(Before 2000, strong El Niño events were observed to occur every 10 to 15 years. But after the turn of the millenium, strong El Niño episodes got more frequent, happening every 5 to 7 years. We also noticed back-to-back La Niña episodes. There has been a shift in the intensity of extreme events due to the increasing frequency of natural climate variability such as El Niño and La Niña. This can be attributed to climate change.)

The occurrences of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events need to be matched with calibrated actions from the public and concerned government agencies, according to Solis.

“Siguro kailangan natin ng nararapat na tamang aksyon - yung tinatawag nating calibrated actions sa bawat forecast, warnings na ibinibigay ng PAGASA. ‘Pag sinabi nating warning, ito ay babala for you to prepare. Ano ‘yung mga nararapat na aksiyon before, during, and after a disaster or meteorological hazard happens?”

(We need to have calibrated actions for every forecast and warning issued by PAGASA. These include the necessary actions before, during, and after a disaster or meteorological hazard happens.)

She adds science communication and impact-based forecasting need to be improved.

“Kailangan pa rin siguro paigtingin ‘yung science communication – ‘yung basic understanding sa bawat babala ng weather agency, ‘yung calibrated action. That is why ang PAGASA is towards impact-based forecasting para at least ma-calibrate natin ‘yung mga nararapat na action given ‘yung forecast and warnings.”

(Science communication needs to be improved further. That is why PAGASA is gearing towards implementing impact-based forecasting so actions will be calibrated to the forecasts and warnings.)