Students walk during a heavy downpour in Mandaluyong City on August 23, 2022. George Calvelo, ABS-CBN News/File

MANILA — Between two and eight tropical cyclones may form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) from January to June this 2025, weather bureau PAGASA said.

The months of January, February, March, and April may bring up to one storm each while there may be one or two disturbances in May and June.

The months of January to May are considered a quiet period in terms of tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific Ocean basin, where the Philippines is located.

Along with the tropical cyclone forecast, PAGASA also released the list of tropical cyclone names that will be used for the 2025 season.

The regular set of names includes the following:

1. Auring
2. Bising
3. Crising
4. Dante
5. Emong
6. Fabian
7. Gorio
8. Huaning
9. Isang
10. Jacinto
11. Kiko
12. Lannie
13. Mirasol
14. Nando
15. Opong
16. Paolo
17. Quedan
18. Ramil
19. Salome
20. Tino
21. Uwan
22. Verbena
23. Wilma
24. Yasmin
25. Zoraida

Storm names Jacinto, Mirasol, and Opong are replacements for Jolina, Maring, and Odette, which were decommissioned after causing more than P1 billion damage in agriculture and infrastructure during their onslaught in 2021.

There are an additional 10 names in the auxiliary set in case the first 25 names are used up:

1. Alamid
2. Bruno
3. Conching
4. Dolor
5. Ernie
6. Florante
7. Gerardo
8. Hernan
9. Isko
10. Jerome

In 2024, there were 17 storms inside the Philippine area of responsibility – six of which successively struck Northern Luzon in just four weeks: Severe Tropical Storm Kristine, Super Typhoon Leon, Typhoon Marce, Typhoon Nika, Typhoon Ofel, and Super Typhoon Pepito.

Tropical storm outside PAR to develop into typhoon: PAGASA

For the first time, a tropical system that did not enter the PAR was also given a local name. 

PAGASA assigned the name Romina to the tropical depression that formed over southern West Philippine Sea that directly affected the Kalayaan Islands of Palawan, which are outside of the PAR, which the World Meteorological Organization defined and assigned in the 1960s.

NAME RETIREMENT

At least five storm names from 2024 may be up for retirement: Aghon, Carina, Enteng, Julian, and Kristine.

PAGASA retires a tropical cyclone name if the system has caused at least 300 fatalities or at least P1 billion damage in agriculture and infrastructure. 

Aghon, Enteng, and Julian posted damage of P1.03 billion, P2.6 billion, and P1.57 billion, respectively. 

Based on the data from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council situational reports, cumulative damage from all storms in 2024 is pegged at almost P40 billion.

The aggregate damage from Butchoy and Carina and Kristine and Leon amounted to more than P10 billion and 18 billion, respectively.

Two hundred ninety eight deaths, 232 injuries, and 60 missing persons were also reported, with Kristine and Leon logging 159 deaths and Butchoy and Carina recording 48 fatalities. 

Depending on the disaggregated data, storm names Nika, Ofel, and Pepito may also be up for decommissioning.

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