Residents ride canoes to and from their homes in the still-flooded barangay of Dela Paz in Binan, Laguna on November 18, 2024. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News/File 

MANILA — A group of scientists from the University of the Philippines-Diliman (UPD) developed a system which they said could predict floods 24 hours in advance.

The Impact-Based Flood Forecasting System uses rainfall projections and maps that show areas prone to severe flooding. By adjusting global weather models to match the country’s geography and weather patterns, the system releases predictions that are more accurate, the UPD-College of Science said. 

“This system can determine whether a neighborhood is likely to be affected by a major flood event 24 hours in advance,” said UP Resilience Institute head Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay, who headed the project.

“When accessed on the NOAH website, areas prone to flooding due to severe weather are shown in map view or tabular format, with the number of potentially affected people listed down to barangay level,” he added. 

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The Impact-Based Flood Forecasting System determines specific areas in the Philippines that are most likely to be affected by severe flooding. Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay

The system was released in 2024 and has been available for public use since then. It was able to forecast the flooding in Davao, Palawan, and Borongan this year, UPD-College of Science said.

The system enables the public to validate the data it provides.

“The public can contribute information through the LyfSaver app, allowing Filipinos to report floods in their area,” Lagmay said.

The project won the best innovation pitch among 64 entries nationwide in the Preparedness and Response Excellence in the Philippines (PREP) Innovation Challenge organized by the United Nations World Food Programme and the USAID.

Following this feat, Lagmay said, “We will add more hazards such as rain-triggered landslides and possibly storm surge hazards to the forecasting system.”

Lagmay collaborated with the UPRI Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) Center scientists and Dr. Gerry Bagtasa of the UPD-CS Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (IESM) for the project. They were assisted by Dr. Bernard Alan Racoma of IESM and had partnered with the Academic Alliance for Anticipatory Action (4As).

Those who want to support this effort can donate through this link. 

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