MANILA — Retired Supreme Court (SC) Justice Antonio Carpio on Saturday urged Philippine lawmakers to give up their discretionary funds for 25 years, and divert the sum to boost the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) modernization program.

The Philippines “must prepare for the worst by strengthening its self-defense capabilities at all costs while hoping for the best,” Carpio said in an online forum, after slamming the United States for voting against a United Nations position to condemn Russia for its “unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine.”

“For the first time in memory, the US has voted in favor of the aggressor state against the victim of aggression,” Carpio said.

“The coastal states bordering the South China Sea are forewarned that China will now be emboldened to act aggressively in making the nine-dash line its international boundary in the South China Sea,” he said.

“Members of the Philippine Congress must forego their humongous, annual pork barrel for the next 25 years for the Philippines to modernize its Armed Forces to defend the West Philippine Sea.”

While Manila and Washington are bound by a Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) that assures that one will come to the aid of the other in the event of an armed attack, US President Donald Trump's recent heated exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend spooked world leaders and observers.

In the said exchange in the Oval Office, Trump and his Vice President JD Vance lashed out at Zelensky after the Ukrainian leader insisted that Kyiv cannot engage in negotiations with Moscow as Europe’s largest country has repeatedly violated similar agreements in the past.

Trump and Zelensky clash in Oval Office shouting match

“We trust the US… They are reasonable people, but it’s Trump that is too unpredictable,” Carpio said.

“For him to say that Russia did not invade Ukraine... He can do the same for the South China Sea,” he said.

The Philippines needs “to be prepared,” especially now that the “world is at a critical cross roads today,” the former justice said.

“The existing international order is changing for the worse. Alliances are shifting or even breaking down,” he said.

“This means that the Philippines must prepare for the worst in the South China Sea,” he said.

If China succeeds in enforcing its illegal nine-dash line map, the Philippines will lose “80 percent of its maritime zones and all its island territories in the West Philippine Sea,” said Carpio, who has published a book on the Philippines’ sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the West Philippine Sea.

“The Philippines must strengthen its alliances with like-minded states Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the European Union and other states threatened by this impending unraveling of the existing international order,” he said.

“Members of Philippine Congress must stop reducing the budget for the AFP, the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ modernization to increase their own pork barrel.” 

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration initially proposed a P50-billion budget for the AFP’s modernization program this year, the highest funding for the program since he took office in 2022.

However, House members tried to slash the fund by around P10 billion. The move was blocked by the Senate, which pushed for the AFP to have a higher modernization allocation.

While the AFP received a P75-billion modernization budget this year, the agency can only readily use P35 billion as more than half of the fund was categorized under standby appropriations, which can only be used should the government exceed revenue targets.

'PH MUST WORK WITH VIETNAM, MALAYSIA'

While the Philippines has been working to boost its maritime assets and other capabilities in the West Philippine Sea, Manila lacks maritime features that can serve as formidable posts in the resource-rich area, said Benjamin Blandin, a former auditor at the Paris Military Academy, French Naval Academy and the International Foundation for the Law of the Sea.

“There has been very little investment in developing or reclaiming anything,” he said.

“Some of those boats have been acquired as a stop-gap measure to reinforce the Navy,” he said.

While this is considered as non-escalatory and “among the very best in the class of students surrounding the South China Sea,” this places the Philippines in a difficult position against China, which has been reclaiming land in waters beyond their exclusive economic zone, Blandin said.

The good news is that neighboring Vietnam has been “invested in developing their features,” he said.

Malaysia — on the other hand — also has a sizable number of air and sea radars and other assets that can monitor the location of vessels in the South China Sea, the scholar said.

“Even though they have different strategies, those strategies are complementary,” he said.

“Vietnam has the most features… The Philippines has the most number of ships compared to the Vietnamese Navy,” he said.

“There is reason for Vietnam, the Philippines ang Malaysia to establish a joint maritime domain awareness.”

CHINA’S PLANNED DEEP SEA SPACE STATION

Countries with stakes in the South China Sea may need to work double time as China — Asia’s largest economy — has announced plans to construct a “deep water space station,” said former Energy Undersecretary Eduardo Mañalac, who now works as a petroleum exploration geologist.

The deep sea space station — which is expected to be built 2,000 meters below surface — will feature “various laboratories to house different subjects,” he said.

“It is for exploration to study methane systems… If they are successful in doing this, this would significantly reduce China’s dependence on oil imports,” he said.

“There would be some action underwater if this space station would be built by China,” he said.

West Philippine Sea exists in law and in practice — maritime law expert

For several analysts, Southeast Asian countries fending off China’s navy and maritime militia vessels in parts of the South China Sea should work to make Beijing “realize that everyone of these ships can be disabled at a very low cost.”

“Acquiring frigates is important, [but] if the Philippines wants to counter China one day, it needs indeed the drones to do it,” Blandin said.

“Drones are a much more affordable means for the Philippines to develop… It is much easier to design, produce and maintain,” he said, noting that it could “accomplish many different missions like destryoing antennaes, paint windshields to “incapacitate the mission.”

“The Chinese maritime militia should be taught a lesson one way or another, otherwise it will just go on,” he said.

Marcos Jr. has repeatedly said that his administration would “not allow any attempt by any foreign power to take even one square inch of our sovereign territory.”

While Marcos has been clear that the Philippines “will not yield” and that it must “do more” to deter China’s illegal incursions in the West Philippine Sea, the Filipino leader also said that Manila would continue to “continues to tread the path of dialogue and diplomacy despite these serious difficulties.”