Armed Forces of the Philippines reports Chinese vessel swarming in Iroquois and Sabina, posing threat to Recto Bank security. Forty-eight Chinese fishing vessels have been reported to be swarming Iroquois Reef, located south of the oil and gas-rich Recto Bank in the West Philippine Sea. This information comes from the latest air patrol conducted on June 30, 2023. Courtesy of Western Command Armed Forces of the Philippines

MANILA — A maritime security analyst and former US military official on Thursday said China's actions in the disputed West Philippine Sea could be classified as "occupation" as he urged the Philippines to adopt a new strategy to prevent further encroachment of its territories.

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"[The] situation in the West Philippine Sea is constantly evolving and today I would really classify it as one of being under occupation," said Ray Powell, a fellow of Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute and director of SeaLight, a group that tracks China's "expansive and aggressive maritime gray zone programs."

Powell admitted that the term "occupation" was "inflammatory", but he said China's actions all point to that conclusion.

"Realistically looking at the data, looking at the way China is increasing its presence around Scarborough, denying Philippines access to places like Sabina shoal, all of these lead me to the conclusion that China is trying to control a very, very large heart of the West Philippine Sea," he told ANC's Headstart.

President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. earlier said the country would not deploy Philippine Navy warships in the West Philippine Sea to counter China's presence. 

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Marcos' statement came after Manila accused Beijing of sending Navy ships to shadow Philippine vessels in the Scarborough Shoal. According to the Philippine Coast Guard, several Chinese Navy ships were spotted in separate incidents of harassment in Scarborough Shoal and the Bajo de Masinloc.

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Powell said that while Marcos' "principled" stance was laudable, such move would be interpreted by China as a sign of weakness. 

LONG TERM STRATEGY

Powell suggested that the Philippines counter China's "maritime occupation" by "exploiting" their position as the "occupier," which he said was a resource-intensive endeavor.

"When you try to control that much water, it's going to take a huge toll on your coast guard, maritime militia, navy so it's important for the Philippines to stay out there and continue to make China work for all that it's trying to do in the West Philippine Sea," Powell said.

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"Occupation is a very resource-intensive endeavor and they tend to wear the occupier thin over time," he added.

However, he also acknowledged that China is a military superpower and wearing it down would take a very long time. 

"The Philippines by engaging in these constant patrols, bringing the photographers... has the opportunity over a long period of time to wear China down but it is a long-term endeavor... It's a long struggle," he said.

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He cited the United States' war in Vietnam in the 70s as an example that "in the end, all countries engaged in this get worn down."

"We were engaged in a long-term fight in what we saw at that time as being a vastly inferior force but they wore us down. We were on their turf and they wore us down. They wanted it more than we did and they were determined to wear us down," Powell said.

China was projected to spend 1.665 trillion yuan ($231.4 billion) on defense in 2024, according to the budget report that lays out the government's financial plans for the year ahead.

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China has the world's second-largest defense budget behind the United States. 

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