MANILA (UPDATED) — Reconciliation between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte is unlikely at this point, despite the President seeming to want to deescalate tensions between them a political analyst said.

Marcos Jr. last week made clear that he is not in favor of a potential impeachment of Duterte, who is subject to House hearings on alleged irregularities in the use of confidential funds, saying it would distract government from urgent tasks.

Speaking to Teleradyo Serbisyo on Sunday, Dr. Froilan Calilung of the University of Santo Tomas Department of Political Science, said the former UniTeam running mates may mend fences but “not now [and] not in the near future.”

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He said that the “political crack” between the two top officials has become “too big and too wide for them to patch things up in a very short span of time.”

Duterte has said things have reached the “point of no return” while Marcos Jr. said “never say never” on the prospect of reconciliation.

“Medyo malabo ‘yun… Medyo malala na. Umabot na tayo sa pagkakaroon ng pagbabanta eh,” Calilung said, referring to Duterte’s controversial statements that  supporters have labeled a “conditional threat”.

(That is unlikely. Things are pretty bad already. It has reached the point of threats being made)

From ‘I love you’ to ‘point of no return’: Kinahinatnan ng tirada ni Sara Duterte kay Marcos Jr.

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The President has played down the issue and has said advised members of the House against “wasting time” on impeachment proceedings, which he said would not benefit anyone.

“It will just take up all our time and for what? For nothing, for nothing. None of this will help improve a single Filipino life,” he said.

“When he stated that the impeachment is not important maybe he is trying to downplay or neutralize a volatile situation something na ayaw niya talagang lumala pa na to go out of hand,” Calilung said.

He said that impeachment proceedings, especially those that are seen to have the President’s blessing, “could further antagonize Duterte and could potentially lead to retaliatory political moves that may destabilize the administration.”

He added Marcos Jr. might not want to open a “Pandora’s box” since Duterte, who was a member of the Cabinet until June this year, may have information that she could use against the administration.

DUTERTES CONDUCTING LOYALTY CHECK

The UST professor said that the Dutertes may also be conducting a “loyalty check” on their supporters and followers through their statements and actions against the administration to see if they still have broad support.

"For all we know maybe the Vice President really wants the impeachment proceeding to actually go through for it to materialize and proceed so that she will have a proper venue to be able to relay to the public in full detail ...lahat lahat ng kanyang nalalaman."

He said that Vice President Duterte’s “agitations” is also meant to see how far the administration is going to go and to show that “demonstrate that she’s doing a political fight back and not taking this sitting down.” 

Calilung acknowledged that there are legitimate questions about how the Office of the Vice President and Department of Education spent and accounted for their confidential funds

"Kung hindi ito pahihintulutan ng Pangulo, parang may pagtatakip na nangyayari 'no or parang hindi niya ina-allow 'yung katotohanan na lumabas kung sakaling meron talaga hindi maayos o hindi maganda na nagawa ang ating pangalawang pangulo," he said.

(If the President tries to stop this, it will look like there is a cover-up, or like he isn't allowing the truth to come out in case there are irregularities on the part of the Vice President)

He said Marcos Jr. may be trying to distance himself from moves at the House, where his cousin Leyte Rep. Martin Romualdez is speaker.

"If the impeachment will push through, it is supposed to be coming entirely from the Congress, pero alam naman natin that the President still controls and still maintains a considerable following dito sa Kongreso," he said.

"Many legislators align their actions with the president or the speaker to secure political benefits such as funding for their districts, committee chairmanships, or reelection endorsements. Puwede ring tignan 'yung party loyalty... or it could be fear of retaliation."

House leaders have said that Marcos Jr.'s public position against impeachment shows he has nothing to do with the issues surrounding Duterte. 

They have also said that the House, where impeachment proceedings start, cannot refuse to act on valid impeachment complaints filed before it. — Harlene Delgado, Jonathan de Santos, ABS-CBN News

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