PAGASA hosts the 57th Session of the ESCAP WMO Typhoon Committee in Pasay City from February 17 to 20, 2025. Ariel Rojas, ABS-CBN NewsMANILA -- As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense due to climate change, international and state organizations are ramping up initiatives to mitigate their impact, especially on vulnerable regions and population. 

For the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), early warning systems are a cost-effective tool that can save lives and reduce economic losses. 

“You may have heard [of] the United Nations (UN) Secretary General initiative which is called Early Warning for All, with an ambitious timeline [that] by 2027, everyone on earth should be protected by early warning services,” Cyrille Honore, Director of the Disaster Risk Reduction, Multi-Hazards Early Warning System Office and Public Weather Services of the WMO said Monday. 

According to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), an early warning system is an integrated system of monitoring, forecasting, and prediction of hazards; disaster risk assessment; and communication and preparedness measures that will help individuals, communities, organizations, and the government make timely decisions ahead of potentially disastrous events. 

Honore is in Manila along with officials, experts, and stakeholders from member states and territories of the Typhoon Committee convening for its 57th session from February 17 to 20 and hosted by PAGASA. 

The Typhoon Committee is an intergovernmental body founded in 1968 to promote and coordinate planning and implementation of measures to minimize loss of life and material damage. 

It is supported by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and WMO and has 14 member countries and territories: Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, North Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam. 

2024 is hottest year in Philippines  

“The work of this committee is of significant importance… Last year – 2024 – was the hottest year on record. And so we see the growing challenges with climate change driving an increase in the severity of hazards, not necessarily in their overall frequency for tropical cyclones, in particular. But it obviously calls for improved collaboration and effort. What the committee is doing is precisely addressing this at the regional level,” Honore said. 

For PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando, the Philippines has been benefitting from the annual meeting. 

“In terms of benefits, countries like the Philippines could avail in collaboration within the Typhoon Committee, the various capacity-building trainings, exchange of experts will ultimately [result to] benefits on how we can improve the delivery of services, particularly in providing early warning systems for typhoon and related impacts,” he explained. 

At this year’s meeting, the Typhoon Committee also conferred the Dr. Roman L. Kintanar Award to PAGASA in recognition of the agency’s disaster preparedness efforts through its improved tropical cyclone and warning services and other innovations that especially helped during the passage of consecutive storms last year.

The award was created in 2006 in honor of the late Dr. Kintanar who was instrumental in the founding of the Typhoon Committee and was the head of PAGASA and its predecessor agency, the Weather Bureau, from 1958 to 1994.

DISASTER IMAGINATION 

Residents cleared mud and other debris in Tumana, Marikina, on Thursday, a day after intense rains brought by the southwest monsoon, enhanced by Typhoon Carina, caused massive flooding in Metro Manila. Maria Tan, ABS-CBN News/File

An important component of an early warning system is impact-based forecasting. It is an approach that focuses more on what the weather “will do” rather what the weather “will be.” The goal is to enable the public to take appropriate measures prior to the hazard event. 

“We can have the best weather forecast; if it's not made available, if it's not analyzed, and if it doesn't speak to the people, then you are very likely to miss the point. The ambition of an early warning system is to make these anticipated information available so people can take action. The warning information makes sense if the people understand what this mean for them, what they should do to protect themselves, to protect their assets, what they should also avoid to do in order not to put themselves in a higher level of risk,” Honore explained. 

'Weather reports should be clear, relatable, impactful' 

PAGASA is developing an impact-based forecasting protocol partly financed by the Green Climate Fund. It is currently on pilot until 2027 in select barangays of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan; Legazpi City, Albay; Palo, Leyte; and New Bataan, Davao de Oro. 

“Right now, in collaboration with local government units and different sectors, we are refining such kind of information so that the weather forecast that we provide, when translated to impacts, can probably be more useful and actionable to the general public,” PAGASA Deputy Administrator for Research and Development Marcelino Villafuerte said. 

Philippines is 'world’s riskiest country' for 3rd straight year 

In 2024, the Philippines continued its streak as the world’s most at risk country from the effects of natural hazards for the third straight year based on the WorldRiskReport. 

Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Secretary Renato Solidum believes that impact-based forecasting is not an entirely new concept that may have been already used in the Philippines in another form. 

Citing the Big One as an example, he argued that the projected number of casualties when the predicted magnitude 7.2 earthquake along the Marikina West Valley Fault hits in the near future gives the public an idea of the worst-case scenario. 

Geological experts predict that the collapse of 10 percent of low- to mid-rise buildings in Metro Manila could result to the immediate death of more than 33,000 people and up to 50,000 individuals if including nearby provinces. Up to 25,000 could also be seriously injured. 

“It gives us a sense of what I call disaster imagination that would lead them to a decision based on the awareness of the hazards but also, more importantly, the impact to them, their loved ones, their families… It's really very important if there's a sense of imagination and ownership of what we need to do if we are able to imagine the disaster that will happen if we don't do anything,” Solidum said. 

METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION AS BASIC HUMAN RIGHT 

The ESCAP WMO Typhoon Committee conferred the Dr. Roman L. Kintanar Award 2024 for Typhoon-Related Disaster Mitigation to PAGASA at its 57th Session in Pasay City. Handout/PAGASA

He also underscored the importance of accurate meteorological data in generating accurate forecasts where life-saving decisions are based. 

“We need to treat the [meteorological] information given by all the countries as very basic information that is considered a basic human right of every citizen all over the world because the right information given by the meteorological organizations would be the basis for the right decisions at the right time,” the Secretary said. 

Local data a 'must' for resilience to disasters: DENR  

“I think the Philippines is one of the leading countries where we are trying to make sure that information is brought down to the people right at their fingertips with all the applications that we have provided so that they can act properly,” Solidum said. 

In a 2023 report released this January, the Commission of Audit flagged PAGASA for 430 hydrometeorological stations across the country that have been rendered inoperative or needing rehabilitation due to lack of funding from DOST during the Duterte administration. 

The report said PAGASA requested for additional maintenance and rehabilitation funds in their budget for calendar years 2019 to 2022 but were not granted.   

PAGASA: We welcome and address criticisms  

“At the Department of Science and Technology, we will continue to support both DOST-PAGASA and DOST-PHIVOLCS to make sure that they're doing their job to the best of their ability. We hope that disaster risk reduction financing is increased but of course to do this then, we also have to show why it is important to invest on this and use the current technology so that we can maximize all the efforts and the data that we have,” Solidum explained. 

The Science and Technology chief also shared that PAGASA is finalizing some details to realize the use of artificial intelligence in its weather forecasting, which could significantly improve the accuracy and efficiency of their forecasts. 

PAGASA to use artificial intelligence 

Solidum further said that his agency’s disaster mitigation and resilience efforts should ultimately help improve the quality of life in the country. 

“Bottom line, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation [are] central to making sure that: one, we have better quality of life as we are prone to many hazards and climate change effects and second, so that we can achieve our economic development through protection of our economy, not only lives. That's why my advocacy now is to make sure that when we talk about disaster and climate resilience, we should not be merely surviving but economically thriving. That's the bottom line.”