4 to 7 storms to form inside or enter Philippine area before 2024 ends: PAGASA | ABS-CBN
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4 to 7 storms to form inside or enter Philippine area before 2024 ends: PAGASA
4 to 7 storms to form inside or enter Philippine area before 2024 ends: PAGASA
Rain continues to pour on pedestrians and motorists near EDSA in Quezon City on September 4, 2024, hours after tropical storm Enteng exited the Philippine area of responsibility. State weather bureau PAGASA said some areas in Luzon are still expected to experience rains as Enteng continues to enhance the habagat. Maria Tan, ABS-CBN News
![Rain continues to pour on pedestrians and motorists near EDSA in Quezon City on September 4, 2024, hours after tropical storm Enteng exited the Philippine area of responsibility. State weather bureau PAGASA said some areas in Luzon are still expected to experience rains as Enteng continues to enhance the habagat. Maria Tan, ABS-CBN News](https://od2-image-api.abs-cbn.com/prod/editorImage/172724725959220240904-enteng-rain-edsa-MT-8.jpg)
MANILA – Four to seven tropical cyclones may form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility in the last quarter of 2024, PAGASA said Wednesday.
MANILA – Four to seven tropical cyclones may form inside or enter the Philippine area of responsibility in the last quarter of 2024, PAGASA said Wednesday.
Two or three storms are forecast in October and one or two each in November and December, the state weather bureau said in a climate forum.
Two or three storms are forecast in October and one or two each in November and December, the state weather bureau said in a climate forum.
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Solis said tropical cyclones tend to make landfall and cross the country around this period.
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Solis said tropical cyclones tend to make landfall and cross the country around this period.
Most of the past October storms made landfall over Luzon while November and December cyclones mostly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and eastern Mindanao.
Most of the past October storms made landfall over Luzon while November and December cyclones mostly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and eastern Mindanao.
Solis added that although a weak La Niña is possible in the same period, intense typhoons could also be expected.
Solis added that although a weak La Niña is possible in the same period, intense typhoons could also be expected.
"Historically, may nakita tayong during weak La Niña [in the] last quarter of the year, mas nagkakaroon tayo ng occurrences ng mga super typhoon and typhoon category [na mga bagyo]... at the same time rain-bearing yung mga bagyo natin," she said.
"Historically, may nakita tayong during weak La Niña [in the] last quarter of the year, mas nagkakaroon tayo ng occurrences ng mga super typhoon and typhoon category [na mga bagyo]... at the same time rain-bearing yung mga bagyo natin," she said.
(When a weak La Niña coincides with the last quarter of the year, we see super typhoon and typhoon strength storms, which are also rain-bearing.)
(When a weak La Niña coincides with the last quarter of the year, we see super typhoon and typhoon strength storms, which are also rain-bearing.)
State weather forecasters see a storm forming off Northern Luzon this weekend.
State weather forecasters see a storm forming off Northern Luzon this weekend.
The next storm names in PAGASA's list for 2024 include the following.
The next storm names in PAGASA's list for 2024 include the following.
• Julian
• Julian
• Kristine
• Kristine
• Leon
• Leon
• Marce
• Marce
• Nika
• Nika
• Ofel
• Ofel
• Pepito
• Pepito
• Querubin
• Querubin
INCREASED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
INCREASED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
The potential Julian could be the tenth weather disturbance in the country this 2024 and the sixth this September.
The potential Julian could be the tenth weather disturbance in the country this 2024 and the sixth this September.
Six storms in the country in September is very rare as it only happened twice in the past: in 1978 and 1993.
Six storms in the country in September is very rare as it only happened twice in the past: in 1978 and 1993.
Climatologists attribute this increased tropical cyclone activity to the lack of storms in the previous months and the warm sea temperatures near the country.
Climatologists attribute this increased tropical cyclone activity to the lack of storms in the previous months and the warm sea temperatures near the country.
“Hanggang August, wala tayong gaanong bagyo pero energy balance 'yun eh so pagdating ng susunod na buwan, like for this case September, maraming bagyo,” Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Chief Thelma Cinco said.
“Hanggang August, wala tayong gaanong bagyo pero energy balance 'yun eh so pagdating ng susunod na buwan, like for this case September, maraming bagyo,” Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Chief Thelma Cinco said.
“Nakita natin mostly near the land area 'yung mga nabubuong low pressure area at ang bibilis [maging bagyo], di ba? Kasi mas mainit kaysa sa normal 'yung na-observe natin na sea surface temperature sa Philippine Sea,” she added.
“Nakita natin mostly near the land area 'yung mga nabubuong low pressure area at ang bibilis [maging bagyo], di ba? Kasi mas mainit kaysa sa normal 'yung na-observe natin na sea surface temperature sa Philippine Sea,” she added.
(There were only a few storms until August. The energy balance must be maintained so many tropical cyclones formed this August. Many low pressure systems also formed near land and rapidly developed into storms. This is due to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the Philippine Sea.)
(There were only a few storms until August. The energy balance must be maintained so many tropical cyclones formed this August. Many low pressure systems also formed near land and rapidly developed into storms. This is due to warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the Philippine Sea.)
The first nine tropical cyclones of 2024 caused 101 deaths, 64 injuries, and 34 missing, based on reports of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.
The first nine tropical cyclones of 2024 caused 101 deaths, 64 injuries, and 34 missing, based on reports of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.
Cumulative damage to infrastructure amounted to P7.6 billion, while the agriculture sector suffered around P4 billion in damage.
Cumulative damage to infrastructure amounted to P7.6 billion, while the agriculture sector suffered around P4 billion in damage.
In 2023, there were only 11 storms in the country -- tying the record for the least number of storms in a year with 1998 and 2010. This was seen as an effect of the strong El Niño that gripped many parts of the world.
In 2023, there were only 11 storms in the country -- tying the record for the least number of storms in a year with 1998 and 2010. This was seen as an effect of the strong El Niño that gripped many parts of the world.
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