Pedestrians brave the flood along EDSA Munoz on July 2024 as the typhoon Carina-enhanced habagat batters the capital region. Jonathan Cellona, ABS-CBN News

MANILA -- La Mesa Dam in Quezon City has reached a spill level of 80.16 meters as of 6 p.m. Wednesday night due to continuous rains brought on by the typhoon-enhanced southwest monsoon.

Weather bureau PAGASA said excess flood waters in La Mesa Dam will overflow in the event that the dam elevation reaches 80.15 meters and affect low-lying areas including Fairview, Forest Hills Subdivision, Quirino Highway, Santa Quiteria and San Bartolome in Quezon City, Barangay Ligon, North Expressway and La Huerta Subdivision in Valenzuela, and Malabon.

"All the residents living in the aforementioned areas, especially those near the river banks, are advised to be alert for possible flooding," PAGASA said. 

The weather bureau has also issued a red rainfall warning in Metro Manila, Rizal, Bataan, Zambales, Bulacan and Pampanga as of 5 p.m., due to a threat of serious flooding in flood-prone areas.

The local government of Quezon City earlier said it had evacuated a total of 12,220 families or 41,685 individuals as of 5 p.m.

RAINFALL LESS THAN ONDOY SO WHY THE FLOODS?

ABS-CBN resident meteorologist Ariel Rojas earlier said Carina’s location in the axis of Northern Luzon and Okinawa puts it in an optimum position for a tropical cyclone to pull or enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat.

Rainfall data from PAGASA also showed Calayan, Cagayan had 342mm rainfall over a 24-hour period from 8 a.m. July 23 to 8 a.m. July 24, which is about a month-and-a-half worth of rain for July in the area.

Quezon City, on the other hand, had 217mm of rain over the same 24-hour period, "which is less than half of what Tropical Storm Ondoy dumped in Metro Manila in 2009," Rojas said.

"We have to remember, that was 15 years ago and in the past 15 years, we have seen so much development. We have more population now and we have seen more obstruction in the waterways in Metro Manila. So that can explain why we have this massive flooding in many areas in the metro," Rojas said in an ANC interview.

"We have a lot of concrete areas, wala nang exposed ground where the water can seep so it’s all runoff. All the catch basins - we have Taft, Araneta Avenue, Roxas District - we see all these areas have high water levels."

Between 2 a.m. to 8 a.m. on Wednesday, Quezon City experienced 144.4 mm of precipitation or more than a week’s worth of rain. 

Tanay, Rizal, meanwhile, had 107mm of accumulated rainfall during the same six-hour period, which is more than a week’s worth of rain for that area.

Rojas said he expects less rain to affect Metro Manila starting Wednesday night until Friday.

CARINA NOW A SUPER TYPHOON

As of 4 p.m., Carina has intensified into a super typhoon, packing 185 kph winds and gusts of up to 230 kph. It is forecast to make landfall in  Taiwan Wednesday evening and exit the Philippine area of responsibility by Thursday morning.

READ: 'Carina' strengthens into a super typhoon

The weather bureau said the southwest monsoon enhanced by Carina will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon today until Friday.

Tropical cyclone wind signal no. 2 remains in effect over Batanes while TCWS No. 2 remains in effect over the following areas:

Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Claveria, Santa Praxedes, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Santa Ana, Gonzaga), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Burgos, Bangui, Pagudpud, Dumalneg, Adams).

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