The Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines recently came out with an official statement urging Filipinos to refrain from campaigning on behalf of Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle becoming our next Pope. This raised the question of what exactly is the process by which the new Pope will be selected, and why won’t our enthusiastic global social media presence make an iota of difference. Personally, I was even blindsided with a ‘perish the thought’ daydream of how a Trolls for Tagle group would be formed—please No!

If you had the chance to watch the critically acclaimed and multi-awarded film of 2024, Conclave; then you will have an approximate idea of the process and what’s about to happen. The screenplay was based on the 2016 novel with the same title, written by Robert Harris, who had done extensive research on the Vatican for his book. One interesting sidebar note is that the novel had a Filipino ascending to be the new Bishop of Rome; and thus, the new Pope. 

In the novel, Cardinal Vincent Benitez is a Filipino with a close relationship to the late Pope, who was handpicked by the Pope before his death to be the Archbishop of Iraq. In the film, Vincent Benitez became Mexican and worked in Kabul, Afghanistan, before being summoned to the conclave, surprising many of the people who gathered there by his presence. 

Ralph Fiennes took on the role of Cardinal Thomas Lawrence, Dean of the College of Cardinals; while in the Harris novel, this character was a Cardinal Jacopo Lomeli—so from an Italian cardinal, to a British one, presumably so the role would fit Fiennes like a glove. But yes, it is the Dean who will be convening and overseeing the Papal Conclave. And very much like the film, speculation is always rife, and ‘favorites’ are presented as part of the media frenzy surrounding the election of a new Pope.  

This media frenzy, the betting and odds being placed on the candidates, has always existed; it’s just that with a Filipino Cardinal in the mix of the ‘most likely’s’, a special interest has surged here in the Philippines. The most recent conclave was held in 2013, when Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected as Pope Francis, succeeding Pope Benedict XVI, who had retired. Bergoglio was the first Jesuit pope, the first from the Americas, born in Argentina; and thus, the first born or raised outside of Europe since the 8th century Syrian pope, Gregory III. Noted for his humility, simplicity, and code of acceptance, tolerance, and love, it will be interesting to watch in which direction the upcoming conclave will take the Catholic Church via its choice of new Pope.

Photo source: ABS-CBN News 

As of last Tuesday, Polymarket, an online prediction market, had odds for “Who Will Be the Next Pope”, with over $3 million accumulated in bets. The odds on favorites are as follows:

1. Cardinal Pietro Parolin (37%)

2. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (26%)

3. Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (10%)

4. Cardinal Péter Erdö (8%)

5. Cardinal Peter Turkson (7%)

6. Cardinal Robert Sarah (4%)

7. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (3%)

Parolin is Italian and was the Vatican’s Secretary of State under Pope Francis, often described as the deputy Pope. Tagle has been dubbed the ‘Asian Francis’. Pizzaballa is Italian, but has been living in Jerusalem since the age of 25. Erdo comes from Hungary and is viewed as a conservative. Turkson hails from Ghana and could be the first African Pope. Sarah is Guinean and a favorite among the conservatives. Zuppi is still another close associate of Francis and comes from Rome.

That Tagle figures quite prominently is the obvious reason for the heightened interest here, and how the ‘faithful’ were seeking ways to help the ‘cause’. The problem is that in real life, unlike in the Conclave film, the cardinals should not be blatant about their ambition. The concept of the ‘reluctant Pope’ is still a strong lesson of public service, and it is still considered ideal to make it look like the role has been thrust upon you. To be currying votes and influence, or betraying such naked ambition, is frowned upon and will only work against a candidate.

For Tagle, what would seem to work in his favor is if the College of Cardinals is seeking continuity. Tagle is known for his commitment to social justice, similar to what the late Pope Francis was known for. Tagle has strong pastoral and administrative experience. But ironically, that he is 67 years of age may work against him, as some may think him still young.

Pope Benedict XVI was 78 years old when elected in 2013, and Pope John XXIII was 76 when elected in 1958. But in Tagle’s favor, there is the example of Pope John Paul II (Cardinal Karol Wojtyla of Poland), who was only 58 years old when elected Pope in 1978. But that was an unusual year, as there were two conclaves, as John Paul I died after a 33-calendar day reign as Pope.

Mind you, if we go back to the film Conclave, the ‘obvious’ choices all fell by the wayside as the film progressed, and a dark horse emerged as Pope. This scenario is a real one, and has happened historically several times. It has led to the existence of the saying, ‘You enter the conclave as a Pope, but leave it as a Cardinal’.

The Papal election is, above all, a spiritual event; and not a democratic exercise or popularity contest. What actually happens is that the Dean of the College of Cardinals first organizes meetings, where the cardinals discuss the needs of the Church and the qualities a future Pope should possess. The Sistine Chapel is where the conclave balloting takes place.

Each Cardinal puts his hand on a book of the Gospels and pledges never to disclose the details of the conclave. The master of liturgical celebrations then declares ‘Extra omnes’ (All Out!), and only the cardinals are left in the Chapel. Voting is each Cardinal writing his choice on a twice-folded piece of paper, which serves as the ballot. The ballots are placed in a large chalice. Cardinals must be under 80 years old to cast a vote.

Four rounds of balloting can happen daily until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote. And yes, this can take days; if an inconclusive vote is reached, ‘Fumata Nera’ (black smoke) is expelled from the Chapel’s chimney. Once the new bishop of Rome is selected by the cardinal electors, the ‘Fumata Bianca’ (white smoke) from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel is the signal the world is waiting for. 

Everything happens behind closed doors. So while the film took us into the conclave, and dramatized the infighting, the subtle campaigning, and jockeying for positions, all that was a fictionalized account. On the outside, we’re really just waiting for the white smoke, buoyed by the belief that these Cardinals will decide on what’s best for the Catholic Church.